The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.5 percent in August to 84.4 (1997=100), continuing a pattern from recent months that suggests the Oregon recession will end in the second half of 2009.

However, the report added, continuing job losses indicate that while the economy may be rebounding, companies on average do not yet see sufficient growth to justify adding employees. In other words, the economic recovery may be a jobless one.

The monthly report from Timothy Duy of the University of Oregon Department of Economics found some hopeful signs: Residential housing permits were essentially unchanged during August, fueling hopes that this summer marked the bottom of the residential construction market.

The Oregon weight-distance tax, a measure of trucking activity, rose to its highest level since last November. In addition, consumer confidence rose during the month. But, Duy noted, spending patterns still are constrained by job losses, low wage growth and less access to credit. The report pointed to September's sharp reversal of the jump in car sales that had been spurred by the "Cash for Clunkers" program as evidence of the fragility of consumer spending.

In addition, new orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital goods, adjusted for inflation, fell in August for the second consecutive month.

In the job market, initial jobless claims continue to drift down, indicating a slower rate of layoffs. But claims remain above levels consistent with sustained job growth. Employment services sector payrolls, dominated by temp-service agencies, declined.

For more information about the index and a look at its history, see http://

uoregon.edu/~oefweb/