Two say town isn't losing a drastic number of locals; university distorts totals

A report released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau indicated that the population of Corvallis would have dropped since 2000 if not for an influx of international immigrants.

However, two Oregon State University sociologists warn that the methodology used in that report, as well as the particular nature of Corvallis as a college town, belies that conclusion.

Associate professor Mark Edwards and assistant professor Roger Hammer have been examining the migration numbers used in the report, and both agree that those numbers raise on-going questions and concerns about local population change, but should not be used to claim that Corvallis is either dramatically losing domestic residents or experiencing a wave of foreign-born immigration.

First of all, the numbers actually represent Benton County as a whole, not just Corvallis. And the numbers focus on net migration, that is, not the total number of immigrants who came and went, but the amount who came and stayed within the period examined.

In the new report, domestic migration is calculated by using IRS tax return information. In a college town like Corvallis, with a transient student population, using tax return information can be highly problematic. That's because college students are often getting their first jobs and filing their first income tax forms in Corvallis, but when they graduate a few years later, then it appears that the population has taken a huge dip, when in fact the comings and goings of college students happen all the time.

In Corvallis, unlike Eugene, which has a bigger population and larger employment base, the student population makes up about one-third of the county's total population. Thus, OSU has a much bigger impact on its home community than Portland State University or University of Oregon.

"Were there really 3,000 more people who departed Corvallis than moved in from other parts of the country?" Edwards said. "College towns like Corvallis, Pullman, Moscow and College Station keep showing us really big numbers for out-migration."

"Really (college students) were an in-migrant that should have counted against those out-migrants, but they don't," Hammer said.

"It looks like we have all these people leaving, but of course, most of them move away because they've graduated," Edwards said. "When you see that pattern showing up in so many other college towns, there's something to understand there … the way they're measuring that domestic migration tends to overemphasize the story for Corvallis."

The international migration numbers are also hard to believe. And that's because they're not based on current numbers. Instead, the Census Bureau projected the number of foreign-born immigrants to Benton County based on its 2000 census numbers, and national immigration statistics. The estimate does not take into account that many of Corvallis' foreign-born residents are only here temporarily for academic reasons, and are not permanent residents.

That's different than the international immigration seen in other parts of the country, where migrants come to work and live for a long period. That kind of migration is happening in Benton County, but it's paired with international students and professors arriving and eventually leaving.

"It's hard to believe Corvallis picked up 2,400 international immigrants but Bend picked up 600," Edwards said. "If anywhere is going to be attracting migrants to come and work, they're going to go to Bend before they're coming to Benton County."

According to Hammer, using numbers from the actual Census data taken in 1990 and 2000, the trend in net migration rates for Benton County is actually very stable, and does not reflect the changes that the new report indicates.

"For that to change so radically over the last six years is questionable," Hammer said.

The Population Research Center at Portland State University has quite a different set of numbers estimating Benton County's population. According to its data, between April 1, 2000 and July 1, 2006 (the same period used by the Census report), Benton County had a net migration of 4,108. The new Census report claims a net loss of 659. While the PRC data does not separate domestic and international migration, it still paints a far different picture of the strength of the county's population.

The PRC uses two methods to estimate population, by tracking statistics including school enrollment, births, Medicare enrollment and changes to state income tax exemptions, as well as changes in housing stock and group quarters population.

Edwards said he thinks the Census report fails to answer questions that should be important to the health of Benton County as a vibrant community, concerns such as affordable housing, closing schools and making sure Corvallis does a good job welcoming people from different places. Those things just aren't addressed, and because the methodology for college towns is questionable, it may cause undue alarm.

"It causes us to start wringing our hands over something that's not really a problem," Edwards said.