What will Iraq victory be like in two years?

By MIKE BEILSTEIN

Gen. Tommy Franks and President Bush assured the world that the schedule may be uncertain, but there was no doubt about the outcome of the Iraq invasion. Of course, they were right. The regime of Saddam Hussein has fallen. It is difficult to envision any other result.

At its peak of military prowess, Iraq was never a match for the United States. Iraq was weakened by eight years of war with Iran, followed by loss of troops and equipment after invading Kuwait. Then there followed 10 years of U.S. bombing to destroy anti-aircraft defenses, combined with economic sanctions to prevent offensive weapons development. Iraq was not a military force that could present a challenge to the world's only superpower.

U.S. forces can impose any form of "regime" they select for Iraq. So, what will that regime look like? What will life be like for Iraqis one or two years after the elimination of the Hussein regime?

Referring to the invasion as "liberation," the Bush administration has implied that an oppressive regime that fails to represent the interests and aspirations of the Iraqi people will be replaced with a benevolent, enlightened administration that promotes economic, social and political advancement, leading Iraq into the liberal/democratic/progressive club of nations in a few years. Everyone wants that, so how could there be a problem?

The evidence is mounting that the administration's vision of Iraq is a delusion. Bush and associates may be sincere in their belief. They may want it to be true so badly that they will continue to believe despite all evidence. But there are strong reasons to consider it a delusion.

The delusion was apparent in the attack strategy. No provisions were made for securing 300-mile lines of supply, because it was assumed that only the center would resist. The delusion said the liberated Iraqis, freed from control by the fierce dictator in Baghdad, would welcome their saviors with roses and music. Instead, the invaders initially were greeted with ambush and bullets.

Resistance may continue as long as the American occupation continues. Saddam Hussein did not facilitate the political aspirations of the Kurds, nor the Shia Muslims. To do so would have meant dismantling Iraq.

A new U.S.-imposed regime will not assist Shia autonomy to allow closer alignment with their natural ally, Iran. Neither can the U.S. allow an autonomous Kurdish region to threaten liberation for the oppressed Kurdish population of our ally, Turkey. Under U.S. protection, the same brutal oppression of the majority by the Sunni minority will continue. Anything else would destabilize the region.

The delusion was that Iraqi resistance would cease with the removal of Hussein. However, maintaining Iraq as a single entity with a foreign occupying force is likely to breed stronger and more successful resistance than that which opposed Saddam Hussein.

The Iraqi people have no reason to love their American occupiers. American bombing during the Gulf War devastated their country, destroying electrical, water and sewage infrastructure. The sanctions regime left them economically crippled and prevented reconstruction, resulting in more than 500,000 deaths from malnutrition and disease. This most advanced Arab nation, with admirable health care, education and economic opportunity, was reduced to ruins. The U.S. repeatedly blocked European attempts to loosen the sanctions and make them specific to weapons materials. Eighty percent of Iraqis are now dependent on the food-for-oil program because economic activity has ground to a halt. The administration can reasonably argue that Saddam Hussein is responsible for these ills, but to the Iraqi people this is blaming the victim.

Two years after liberation, the only sector of Iraqi infrastructure restored and fully functioning may be petroleum production. A large American military presence may be required to protect oil production from sabotage by resentful Iraqis. American troops may regularly go into populated urban areas with full armor, artillery and helicopter gun ships to search for terrorists and freedom fighters. In two years, Iraq may look a lot more like the West Bank than post-war West Germany.

Mike Beilstein is a Corvallis resident.